Slightly weak Indian monsoon; 94% rainfall prediction, Slight delay- onset of Monsoon
Keys monsoon 2019 forecast take away points:
- Our expert predicts that this year Indian monsoon could be delayed and possible date of arrival of monsoon in Kerala end of the first week of June 2019 (7 June). The official onset date for the arrival of monsoon in the country is 1st
- Slightly less rainfall in the last month (September) with a much drier environment
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global forecast agency indicated Weak formation of EL Nino and that is associated with less than normal rainfall for India
- Weather Analytica expert predict long-range forecast with 94% of the long-term average rainfall which is the somewhat lower side of the normal range. Typically, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season.
- North India will see slightly above rainfall but the rest of the country likely receive less amount of rainfall in the next three months (March-April-May)
Detail 2019 Indian Monsoon Summary
Precipitation Seasonal Forecast
The Weather Analytica forecast team predicting that the summer monsoon in India will arrive in Kerala around 7th June this year, a week delay than normal. Our long-range forecast predicts rainfall amount of 94% of the long-term average which is somewhat less than the normal range. Our forecast will keep monitoring several factors in coming weeks and update the forecast as we move closer to the monsoon onset. We have considered many factors such as weak EL Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, long-term historical data, IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation. Currently, various sources indicating that rainfall will be somewhat below than normal.
Temperature Seasonal Forecast
The seasonal temperature forecast for India suggests that much drier air will prevail during the first phase (June-July) of monsoon over India. The temperature forecast tends suggested that temperature will be slightly above than average and much warmer in the central Indian region, Maharashtra Marathwada region. With above normal temperature, there are possibilities for a drought like situation over several regions such as Jharkhand, Gujarat, Central India (north of Madhya Pradesh), and Marathwada district in Maharashtra region. During pre-monsoon season, the much warmer temperature could lead the agriculture community in crises which will have a massive impact on the economy, water security, agriculture, and livelihood in these regions.
Indian monsoon is dynamic and very complex in nature
Indian economy is primarily driven by monsoonal rainfall which feeds the agriculture and huge impact on 1.2 billion people in India. With only a few months left, various government agencies and private sectors are starts projecting their forecast. This early forecast and discussion will definitely provide some initial planning and assessment to help policymakers as well as other dependent sectors. This forecast has many model uncertainties and subject to change as we go closer to the monsoon season hence all sectors use this forecast with caution.
Author: Dr. Anil Kumar (Ph.D), Meteorologist. He has 15 + years of experience in meteorology and has worked with NASA, NCAR worlds great renowned education & government weather agencies.